A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
